European Foundation Intelligence Digest, 18th

Turkey curbs military influence to please EU

The Turkish government, under pressure from the EU, has passed a law to curb the military’s influence on politics. The reforms have infuriated the military, one of whose top generals, Cetin Dogan, has accused the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, of trying to undermine the Turkish Armed Forces and of attempting to change the secular regime. These clashes have been independently confirmed by sources within the Turkish army, and have been reported in the Turkish press, especially by the leading daily, Milliyet. The reform consists of reducing the influence of the National Security Council, which is dominated by the military. These changes are being implemented because the EU has demanded them as a condition for Turkish accession negotiations. General Dogan reportedly told the prime minister that he was trying to deceive the Turkish people and that one day he would “pay for it”. Another newspaper, Cumhuriyet (Republic) said that other generals at the meeting, which occurred during the annual military congress which takes place to determine military promotions, supported Dogan. The EU has also demanded greater rights for the Kurds as a condition for negotiations. The army’s position is that it supports EU membership but is opposed to too many concessions which might hurt national security. [Selcan Hacaoglu, Turkish Daily News, 8^th August 2003]

In addition to reducing the army’s influence in the National Security Council, a new amnesty law has also been passed for Kurdish rebels. Following the withdrawal of some 2,000 fighters from the PKK into Northern Iraq, the amnesty law provides for those who did not actively participate in violent attacks between 1984 and 1999 to go unpunished. Other fighters will receive reduced sentences if they provide the Turkish authorities with information about their activities and networks. The Interior Minister has said that those wishing to take advantage of the amnesty law, which will be valid for 6 months, should spend no more than two days in detention before being allowed to return to their villages. [Anadolu Agency, 6^th August 2003]

In other developments, the leading daily Hurriyet has commented on private visits paid to Paul Wolfowitz, the Deputy US Defence Secretary, by an adviser to the Turkish prime minister, Cuneyt Zapsu. These meetings have caused unease in Ankara, because Wolfowitz, who takes a strong interest in Turkey, was harshly critical of the decision not to allow US troops the use of Turkish territory to attack Iraq. During his most recent visit to the United States, the foreign minister of Turkey, Abdullah Gül, told Paul Wolfowitz, “We cannot meddle in your talks. However, we would suggest that you opt for the official channels. That way, you can read our policies correctly and you won’t be making mistakes.” Gül made it clear that the “mistakes” in question might include a repetition of the surprise vote in the Turkish parliament on 1^st March which went against the American request, and against the government’s acquiescence in it. Zapsu had come under criticism for raising Wolfowitz’s hopes too much regarding the likely position of Turkey on allowing its territory for the use of an attack on Iraq. [Hürriyet, 4^th August 2003]

Telekom Serbia affair implicates Prodi

Igor Marini, the man arrested in Switzerland on 8^th May and then subsequently extradited to Italy, in connection with the sale in 1997 of Telekom Serbia by Telecom Italia, for which it is alleged that significant bribes were paid, has said that he wishes to address the committee in the Italian parliament which is dealing with the affair. He has not, for the time being, made the “stunning accusations” which he promised when he was initially caught, even though he did at that time mention the names of Romano Prodi, the current president of the European Commission who was Italian prime minister at the time of the sale, Lamberto Dini, the then foreign minister, and Piero Fassino, the then deputy foreign minister. Marini alleges that they all received bribes for the sale, which they have immediately denied. Accused of financial fraud, Marini was interrogated for many hours by the investigating magistrates in Turin who are looking into the Telekom Serbia affair. Marini is said to have confirmed that he met Mrs. Lamberto Dini and gave her a suitcase with $5 million in cash in it. Marini claims that he distributed a total of €225 million in bribes, of which about €100 million went to Prodi, €50 million to Dini and about €60 million to Fassino. Others say that Marini is a professional liar. [Salvatore Aloise, Le Monde, 1^st August 2003]

Pressures grows on Schreyer

Political pressure is said to be growing on the commissar with responsibility for the EU budget, the German Michaele Schreyer, over the continuing Eurostat scandal. Hans-Gert Pöttering, the leader of the Christian Democrat group in the European Parliament, has said that, “seriously wrong behaviour should lead to personal consequences, including the resignation of a commissar.” But pressure is also being brought to bear on Pedro Solbes and Neil Kinnock, respectively commissars for monetary policy and institutional reform. Pöttering said he did not want to comment on their behaviour but preferred to wait for the publication of a report on the Eurostat scandal by OLAF, the Commission’s anti-fraud office. Pöttering said that Kinnock had promised to make the Commission into the most efficient administration in the world – he made this promise when the “new” commission was appointed, following the wholesale resignation of the Santer commission in 1999 - but that he and other commission members would now seriously have to ask themselves whether that goal has been achieved.

It remains unclear whether employees of Eurostat were actually stealing from the EU budget. In an earlier report, though, OLAF did refer to “systematic plunder”, and the Commission is accused of not acting quickly enough. [Helmut Bünder, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 2^nd August 2003] But the European Parliament is unlikely to vote no confidence in the Commission again because, ultimately, MEPs and commissars are all part of the same machinery and the MEPs are too afraid of plunging the whole of Brussels into chaos, just as the new constitution is being drawn up and as new members are joining. So the dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.

EU and US seek accord on agricultural subsidies

The two biggest trading blocs in the world are nearing agreement on agricultural subsidies in time for a mini-summit of the World Trade Organisation on 11^th August. Both sides have said that they are looking at ways of reducing agricultural subsidies together. The WTO deals with internal subsidies, export subsidies and access to emerging markets. Pascal Lamy, the EU’s foreign trade commissar, has said that the two sides will try to present a proposal on agricultural subsidies to the big Cancún summit from 10^th – 14^th September. This summit will require daily meetings between the delegations of the 146 member states of the WTO, starting on 11^th August, in order to prepare the terrain for the ministerial meeting in Mexico. The Cancún summit is part of the Doha round of trade negotiations, commenced in 2001, which is expected to finish in 2004. [Agence France Presse, Le Monde, 30^th July 2003]

Trichet confirmed

Following a favourable vote by the European Central Bank council on 31^st July, and a green light from the European Parliament which is expected in September, Jean-Claude Trichet, the present Governor of the Bank of France, is expected to become the next president of the ECB on 1^st November. The details of the ECB vote will remain secret until 2033, when the archives will be opened to the public. Trichet’s appointment became possible after he was acquitted on 18^th June of all charges relating to the collapse of Crédit Lyonnais. As Director of the Treasury at the time, Trichet had been accused of contributing to the publication of false accounts which misrepresented the bank’s position. This vote confirms the agreement reached in 1998 when France and Germany agreed to divvy up the presidency of the ECB between them (the Germans putting the Dutchman, Wim Duisenberg, in place). Once the European Parliament has approved the choice during its plenary session from 22^nd to 25^th September, it will remain only for the heads of state and government of the eurozone to confirm it. [Le Monde, 31^st July 2003]

Record unemployment in Germany

The German economics minister, Wolfgang Clement, has been forced to insist that unemployment will not reach 5 million following the publication of statistics which show that seasonally adjusted unemployment in July rose by 95,000 to 4.35 million, the highest July figures since the reunification of Germany in 1990. Clement claimed that order books for German companies were up by 2.3%. [Die Welt, 7^th August 2003]

Berlusconi says ‘I feel almost German’

The Italian prime minister has tried to make light of the row sparked off between Italy and Germany by his joke in the European Parliament about how a German Social Democrat MEP would make a good actor for the kapo in a Nazi concentration camp. In an interview to the mass circulation Bild newspaper, he has said that “the close relations between Italy and Germany have never been as good as they are now.” He said that the two countries were united in “solidarity, sympathy and an indestructible common interest.” Of the infelicitous remark made at the expense of Martin Schulz, Berlusconi said that he could not understand how something so irrelevant could be blown up out of all proportion. “I just wanted to make a joke to lighten the atmosphere; I had no intention of offending him, on the contrary, it was my attempt to react ironically to his behaviour, which was very offensive to me, to my government and to my country.” Berlusconi also accused the Italian left of exaggerating the row for its own political purposes. Berlusconi also said that he felt “almost German”: “In Italy I am thought of like that because of my passion for work, and also because I am from Milan, the city where people work the hardest.” When asked for the secret of his success, Berlusconi replied, “Work, work, work.” Mr. Berlusconi has also said that he wants to act as an intermediary between President Bush and Chancellor Schröder. He said, “My tendency is to smooth over differences and arguments.” He said the time had come to move beyond the Iraq crisis. Berlusconi has kept up good relations with George W. Bush, even visiting the ranch at Crawford recently. By contrast, relations between Bush and Schröder are strained: they see each other only at big international meetings. Mr. Berlusconi also said that he thought Joschka Fischer was a “natural candidate” for the post of EU foreign minister, which the European constitution is expected to create. He said that Fischer combined competence with idealism – “two gifts which do not always go together”. [Bild-Zeitung, 5^th August 2003]

Baader-Meinhof gang back in vogue

An exhibition on the Red Army Fraction, founded by Andreas Baader and Ulrike Meinhof at the end of 1960s, has caused a stir in Germany. The Bild newspaper, using an official subsidy of some €100,000, is preparing an exhibition about the gang, for which one of the organisers is said to have written the following preparatory note: “What ideas and ideals of the RAF have kept their value throughout the years, and cannot be rejected because of their naiveté?” The son of Hanns-Martin Schleyer, the head of the German business confederation who was kidnapped and murdered by the RAF in 1977, as well as the widow of Detlev Rohwedder, the head of the East German privatisation office who was murdered in 1991, have immediately protested to Chancellor Schröder at the fact that “such an exhibition can be held with the approval and even the financial support of the state”. “Our concerns are not just personal,” they have written, saying that the exhibition is dangerous because it might contribute to the “legend and glorification of the RAF”. The controversy has spread and now many politicians have expressed their views. The Interior Minister, Otto Schily, who acted as lawyer for Gudrun Esslin, one of the members of the Baader-Meinhof gang, has said that the exhibition should not be held. The Green deputy, Hans-Christian Ströbele, former lawyer for Andreas Baader himself, has said that it should go ahead. The organisers have protested that the exhibition is not intended to glorify the gang, but it has nonetheless been prudently put off until the autumn of 2004. [Georges Marion, Le Monde, 30^th July 2003]

Belgium abolishes universal jurisdiction law

Belgium has now effectively abrogated its 1993 “universal jurisdiction” law which was creating so many political difficulties for it, especially with Israel and the United States of America. The Belgian Senate has now approved an earlier vote by deputies, which creates a new law to replace the old one. The new law reduces to almost zero the possibilities which the old law seemed to offer to prosecute the presumed culprits of war crimes before Belgian courts, whatever their nationality and whatever the nationality of their victims. According to the new law, either the alleged perpetrator or the alleged victim must have some connection with Belgium, either by being Belgian nationals or in virtue of having been resident in Belgium for at least three years. Moreover, the law stipulates that the current rules on immunity must be respected: these were laid down by the International Court of Justice in 2002 which stated that Belgium did not have the right to prosecute the former foreign minister of Congo because he had immunity from Belgian jurisdiction in virtue of his office. The reason for the decision to create a new law was the rapidly deteriorating relations between Belgium and the USA and Israel. Civil parties indicted numerous leaders under the old law, including George W. Bush, Tony Blair and Ariel Sharon. The Belgian government has been criticised for abrogating the law by “human rights” groups who are ideologically wedded to the concept of universal jurisdiction; but it has justified its decision by saying that the law was being massively abused by people wishing to bring politically motivated suits. [Le Figaro, 4^th August 2003]

Olympic games

The mayor of Athens says that she wants to wants to issue 230 new licences for brothels, in preparation for the Olympic Games in the Greek capital next year. Dora Bakoyannis, the apparently conservative mayor, says that she wants the new licences to be issued in conformity with the 1999 law which allows brothels providing they are registered, and providing that they are at least 200 metres away from churches, schools, hospitals, old people’s homes and other brothels, and providing that they are not open for more than 8 hours a day. The Orthodox Church has protested, as have more liberal interests like the US State Department and the Government of Sweden which accuse Greece of being lax about sexual exploitation and people trafficking. Prostitutes have protested in Athens outside the Interior Ministry, saying that the law inhibits their right to work freely. [Der Spiegel, 4^th August 2003]

More killing in Kosovo

Although you wouldn’t know it from the parish newsletter information doled out on the web site of the Nato forces in Kosovo,

http://www.nato.int/kfor/welcome.html, the troubled Southern Serbian province remains a dangerous place. Three people were killed at the weekend after a shoot-out in Peć, and four more were wounded. Of the four wounded, Rexhep Kelmendi, the owner of a hotel, had already been attacked twice before. Such shootings, whether criminal or politically motivated, are common. [Der Spiegel, 3^rd August 2003]

Poland sends troops to Iraq

Poland is finally sending its first large contingent of soldiers to Iraq. But arguments are already breaking out among the states which compose it about how much they will be paid, how long they have to stay, and what the risks are. Poland’s president admitted that there is considerable unease in his country when he commented that, “People need more information.” According to polls, 55% of Poles are opposed to their troops being sent to Iraq, and only a third actually support the deployment. The internationally minded press has been doing its best to convince public opinion, with the liberal daily Gazeta Wyborcza stating somewhat didactically that “Poland’s role is to be an ally of Great Britain and the USA.” 1,700 Polish soldiers are expected to arrive in Iraq this week, and the US command has ascribed to them a district in the south of Baghdad which is supposedly quieter than the rest of the capital. But on Friday evening, the first attack took place on the Polish camp even before the soldiers had arrived. The Pentagon plans for Poland to assume the command of a 9,200 international force in September. In that force there will be a total of 29 countries represented, from Azerbaijan to Mongolia, and from the Philippines to Slovakia. Many suspect that these countries are sending their troops only because they will get paid by the Americans to do so, which has led to the international force being dubbed “the coalition of the billing”. The force will cost the US taxpayer some $240 million this year alone, according to Dov Zakheim, the chief accountant at the Pentagon. It is also not clear how useful these soldiers are going to be: Hungary has already said that it will withdraw its 300 troops if there is any sign of a “warlike situation” developing. Italy has said it will send new soldiers after four months, to maintain morale. El Salvador has postponed sending its elite troops because they say they are underpaid. But perhaps the biggest dividends to be reaped from sending troops are political. Nothing illustrates this better than the case of Ukraine, which seems to have made a spectacular political comeback in the eyes of the Americans. Last year, the American secret services accused the Ukrainian president, Leonid Kuchma, of personally approving the sale of radar equipment to Baghdad. At the Nato summit in Prague last November, the place-names were deliberately translated into French so that “Ukraine” was not next to “United States” and so George Bush did not have to sit next to the Ukrainian leader. Now, it is all sweetness and light between Kiev and Washington. Kuchma has agreed to send 2,300 soldiers to Iraq, an offer eagerly accepted by the Pentagon. Paris, however, has continued to refuse to send any troops, saying that first responsibility for running the country would have to be placed in the hands of the United Nations. [Der Satndard, Vienna, 4^th August 2003]

Azerbaijan dynasty established

The ailing octogenarian president of the former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan, Heidar Aliev, has arranged from his Turkish hospital bed that his son, Ilham Aliev, be appointed the country’s prime minister. According to the Azeri constitution, the prime minister exercises the powers of the president if he is incapacitated. It is clear that the son is now Aliev’s designated successor. Aliev père has been in hospital in a clinic near Ankara since 8^th July, suffering from heart problems. Ilham Aliev has for long been an important figure in Azerbaijan, especially because he is the president of the state oil company Socar, as well as being chairman of the Azeri Olympic committee. Heidar Aliev has governed Azerbaijan with only a brief interruption in the 1990s since he became the First Secretary of the Party in 1969. [Le Figaro, 4^th August 2003]