European Foundation Intelligence Digest, 18th

Welcome to the New Europe

Ten countries signed a declaration of support for the position taken by the USA and Britain in the Iraq crisis: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. They have been branded “the new Europe” by Donald Rumsfeld, as opposed to the “old Europe” of the Franco-German axis. But how new are these governments? Albania is governed by the party of Enver Hoxha, for forty years one of the worst Stalinist dictators in Europe; the president of Bulgaria is a former communist; the president of Croatia was the last communist president of old socialist Yugoslavia, while his prime minister was the Ideology Secretary in the Yugoslav League of Communists; the president of Estonia is the former president of the Supreme Soviet of the Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic; the prime minister of Lithuania is the former First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Lithuanian Communist Party; the government of Macedonia is in the hands of former communists; the president of Romania rose to prominence as head of the Communist Youth under the Romanian dictator, Gheorghe Gheorghiu-Dej, before becoming a member of the Central Committee of the Romanian Communist Party under Nicolae Ceauşescu; the president of Slovakia was a member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Slovakia and for 20 years a senior local communist boss; while the current president of Slovenia was for years deputy to his predecessor, who had been the communist head of Slovenia since 1986. Prior to the open letter signed by the “Vilnius 10”, moreover, three countries, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined five current EU members in signing up to the war on Iraq [see Digest Issue No.160]: the prime minister and president of Poland were both Communists until the bitter end, while the prime minister of Hungary used to be an agent for the Hungarian equivalent of the KGB.

Anglo-French row worsens

The British prime minister, Tony Blair, has written to all the 13 candidate countries that rallied behind the Anglo-American position on Iraq, to congratulate them on their stance and to criticise the Greek presidency of the EU for failing to invite them to the extraordinary EU summit in Brussels. This comes one day after Mr. Chirac delivered the most extraordinary rebuke to them. Mr Chirac said that the candidate countries had “missed a good opportunity to shut up” when they signed the letter of the eight (Britain, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic). As for the “Vilnius 10”, who signed an open letter approving Colin Powell’s statement to the United Nations, Chirac said, “These countries have shown themselves to be badly brought up and somewhat insouciant about the dangers implied by allying themselves so rapidly with the American position.” The president of the Republic continued, “I consider that Romania and Bulgaria were particularly irresponsible to behave in this way because their position is already very delicate with regard to Europe. If they had wanted to reduce their chances of being admitted to the EU, they could have chosen no better way of doing it than this.” He went on to say that belonging to a Union implied acting in concert with other states. “If, on the first difficult subject, countries start giving their point of view without having consulted the others in any way, that is not a very responsible way of carrying on. At any rate, it is not very polite.” He also said that he found their behaviour “rather infantile”, and said that the acts of the candidate states would understandably increase hostility towards EU enlargement in the existing EU member states. These harsh words are likely to be extremely unwelcome in the candidate states, especially since it is widely believed that France, together with Germany and Greece, was responsible for their not being invited to the special summit on Monday. Chirac made a deliberate rebuke to Donald Rumsfeld on Monday when he welcomed “this brilliant testimony of old Europe”. [Laurent Zecchini, Le Monde, 19^th February 2003] Chirac’s remarks were attacked by the Polish foreign minister and by the deputy foreign minister of Bulgaria. A spokesman for the Slovak minister of foreign affairs said that Mr. Chirac’s words were unjustified: the spokesman pointed out that the EU had not, in fact, even reached a common position until Monday, more than a week after the open letter of the 10, “So the 10 could not participate in any common position,” he emphasised. The Hungarian prime minister dismissed the remarks by saying, “I am well brought up enough not to respond to such declarations.” But Chirac was supported by Louis Michel, the Belgian foreign minister, and by Romano Prodi, the president of the European Commission. Chris Patten, the EU commissar for foreign relations, said, “The EU is not the Warsaw Pact and therefore we should show a certain generosity when people disagree with us.” [Le Monde, 18^th February 2003] One EU diplomat said that Chirac had only spoken openly what many in the EU thought secretly. [Handelsblatt, 18^th February 2003]

Fischer reaffirms Germany’s position

Following the common statement adopted by the EU in Brussels on Monday, the German foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, has insisted that there has been no change in Germany’s opposition to the war. He was responding to attacks from the Christian Democrat opposition leader, Angela Merkel, that the EU declaration, which did not rule out the use of military force against Iraq, represented a change of policy by the German government. Merkel said it was essential for the EU to co-operate with the USA. A CSU politician, Michael Glos, said that Brussels had “sunk Goslar” – it was in Goslar in January that Schröder had unambiguously ruled out German support for an Iraq war in the Security Council. Glos said that Germany’s “special path” was not entirely at an end, but that since Monday Germany was “being steered back into the European boat” (sic.) Glos said that this change was due to the influence of Joschka Fischer. [Die Welt, 18^th February 2003] Reports suggest that Nato may ask Germany to send its “Fox” armoured personnel carriers to Turkey: these are particularly useful for chemical and biological warfare; Germany has 114 of them, and its soldiers are well trained to use them. Germany may therefore find that it is forced to send troops into something which will appear indistinguishable, to most people, from actual participation in the war. [Katja Riddersbusch, Die Welt, 20^th February 2003]

German economics institute predicts no recovery

The Ifo institute in Munich has said that it sees hardly any prospects of an economic recovery in Germany in 2003, even if there is no war against Iraq. Its boss, Hans-Werner Sinn, said, “I think that we can no longer expect the long awaited recovery in 2003. Instead, the best we can hope for is a slow improvement.” Sinn said that the capacity for growth “which is strengthened by investment and which leads to job creation, has moved to other countries,” i.e. the growth has not occurred in Germany. The Ifo institute now predicts growth of 1.1% in 2003, as against the prediction of 2.3% it made in August 2002. Sinn said that Germany had to reduce the cost of its welfare state, “which has become too expensive”, and that labour laws had to be reformed. “We must tighten the belt further,” he said, “there is no alternative.” [Interview with Sinn in La Stampa, 17^th February 2003]

Bundesbank figures confirm recession

Even the Ifo institute’s meagre growth figures seem rosier than the Bundesbank’s report, which suggests that the German economy may be in its second recession in two years. The Bundesbank economists have concluded, after studying the contraction of the economy in the last quarter of 2002, that the German economy is in “a phase of quasi-stagnation”. When the figures are finally sorted out for last quarter, the bank will be able to declare whether Germany is formally in recession or not; “recession” means negative growth for two successive quarters. The Bundesbank says that a relaxing of geopolitical tensions is essential if there is to be any chance of economic recovery. If there is a war in the Gulf, the bank says, “it is likely that there will be a durable rise in the price of oil and a renewed regression in the world economy.” On the other hand, the bank emphasises that many of the factors contributing to Germany’s woes are homemade. The European Central Bank is also predicting very precarious growth for the whole euro-zone in 2003. [Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 18^th February 2003]

Schily calls for EU border police

The German Interior Minister, Otto Schily, has called for the creation of an EU border police force. “Common will is not enough,” he told a police congress, “we need common structures.” He suggested the creation of a steering committee for the immediate co-ordination of border protection, which he said should be able to intervene in national policy-making. Schily left open the possibility that this might mean the external borders of the EU being policed by a multi-national EU border police force. He said that criminality and terrorism had to be fought across national borders: only then would people would have confidence in EU enlargement, which he claimed would lead to an improvement in EU security. [Die Welt, 18^th February 2003]

Brussels delays agreement on EU energy tax

Meeting on Tuesday, European Finance Ministers have been unable to agree on a minimum level of tax on energy. The spokesman for the Ecofin council said that the next meeting on the matter had been put off until March, but that there would be bilateral discussions between now and then. The idea of imposing a minimum tax on energy has been on the agenda since 1997, and it was agreed in principle at the Barcelona summit last year. Taxes are to be harmonised on diesel, gas, electricity and oil. The disagreement concerns mainly what exemptions to grant. When the oil price rose in 2000, transport companies protested and numerous governments, including France and Italy, responded with tax cuts. However, the EU allowed these only until 2002. The German finance minister said at the meeting on Monday that any rise in the oil price as a result of an attack on Iraq should be met with a co-ordinated tax policy. Germany is keen to get an agreement on the minimum energy tax because it has high taxes on energy itself. [Handelsblatt, 18^th February 2003]

EU close to agreement with Switzerland

The EU is close to reaching an agreement with Switzerland on the taxation of savings. The Greek finance minister said that they had never been so close to an agreement as now. In January, the EU ministers agreed on a directive for cross-border taxation of savings. For the time being, Austria, Luxembourg and Belgium are being allowed to continue to levy tax at source without participating in the “information exchange” which the EU is trying to force Switzerland to join. The EU is determined to get Switzerland to sign up to an agreement, because it wants to prevent EU citizens from escaping its own taxes by opening accounts there. [Handelsblatt, 18^th February 2003]

Czech governing party selects candidate

The cardinal rule of Czech democracy seems to be that the candidate with the most votes cannot be allowed to win at any price. The Czech presidential elections are due to go into their third round on 28^th February: the two previous rounds in this parliamentary election produced clear wins for the opposition candidate, the former prime minister Václav Klaus, but the rules of the game require more than a simple majority. In each successive round, the governing coalition has selected different candidates. Their third choice is now a professor of philosophy and former “dissident” Jan Sokol, who served as minister for education in the 1998 “caretaker” government in Prague led by Josef Tosovsky. If this third round fails to elect a candidate, which seems possible, then it is likely that the constitution will be amended to allow the president to be elected by universal suffrage. The only problem with that is that Václav Klaus is also the most popular candidate among ordinary voters. His unpopularity, however, with the New World Order, already high considering his scepticism towards the EU, will have been heightened still further by his opposition to the Kosovo war in 1999 and by his abstention in a recent vote in the Czech parliament authorising the dispatch of Czech troops to the Gulf. [Radio Free Europe Newsline, 18^th February 2003]

Three Albanians and Šešelj indicted by Hague

The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia has indicted three members of the Kosovo Liberation Army and the leader of the Serbian Radical Party, Vojislav Šešelj for war crimes. The three Albanians, Haradin Balaj, Isak Musliu and Agim Murtezi, have been arrested by the Kfor troops in Kosovo. The Hague has for a long time been trying to present itself as even-handed, and is usually accused of indicting mainly Serbs: this latest move is no doubt intended to attenuate that perception. The indictment of Šešelj also has the advantage of putting pressure on the most powerful opposition politician in Serbia today: his strong showing in the failed elections for the presidency of Serbia prevented the New World Order candidate, Vojislav Koštunica, from winning. The Albanians are accused of executing Serb and Albanian prisoners near Glogovac. The trial has also opened in Pristina of four Albanians accused of torturing other Albanians accused of being loyal to Belgrade. One of them, Rustem Mustafa - “Commander Remi” – is said to be popular in Kosovo. His arrest last year caused demonstrations in Kosovo. Šešelj, for his part, is accused of war crimes in Bosnia between 1992 and 1993, when he was the head of a paramilitary group. He has said that he will go to The Hague on 24^th February to answer these accusations. [Le Monde, 19^th February 2003]

Malta divided

Trade unions and the opposition are fighting the government in Malta over EU membership. The former are against and the government is in favour; but this makes Malta the only candidate country (with the partial exception of Poland) whose leading opposition party is opposed to EU membership. There is to be a referendum on EU membership on 8^th March. The current leader of the opposition Labour Party, Alfred Sant, stopped the whole accession process while he was prime minister from 1996 to 1998. He has said that he will not recognise the result of the referendum, which is merely consultative. Although the European Union is not particularly concerned if Malta votes No – it will save them a lot of money having to translate everything into Maltese, for a country with merely 400,000 inhabitants – the commissars are worried that an early No vote in the series of referendums might have a contagious effect on the other countries. Günther Verheugen, the commissar for enlargement, visited the island trying to drum up support for EU membership: Mr Sant just retorted, “Verheugen can come here with his graphs showing how much better off we will all be. But we can show him pictures of the bombs which the Germans dropped on us during the war.” The deputy leader of the opposition added, “If you are a big country and you give up two thirds of your sovereignty, you can wield it at the European level. But we are giving up everything without knowing how we will get it back again.” Opposition to the EU comes from various quarters: the Catholics are suspicious of the EU’s louche morals, the hunters like to shoot migratory birds and the general population does not want to be flooded with Sicilian immigrants or German and British holidaymakers buying up property. The fact that Malta has negotiated derogations on these and other matters has not mollified the opposition. Relations with Libya are also an issue. [Arnaud Leparmentier, Le Monde, 11^th February 2003]

Austrian Chancellor decides

Nearly three months after the general election, the leading party in the Austrian government has still not decided whether to ally itself with the socialists or the Freedom Party. The leadership of the Austrian People’s Party was due to meet on Thursday to decide between these two policy options. So far, it seems as if the closest agreement has been reached between the two previous coalition partners, namely with the Freedom Party. Leading figures in the FPÖ have said that their party is ready to govern. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats have been complaining that the Chancellor has led them up the garden path and held discussions which he never thought would actually lead anywhere. On the other hand, a new coalition with the FPÖ will annoy a lot of people in Chancellor Schüssel’s own party, since it was the FPÖ which brought the previous coalition down with its own internal bickering. [Der Standard, 19^th February; Die Welt, 18^th February 2003]

Fidesz cuts up awkward

The leading opposition party in Hungary has started to get awkward with the government over a certain number of important policy issues. It has, for instance, demanded that the government explain what is going on in the former Soviet military base at Taszar, where some 3,000 Iraqis are currently undergoing secret training. Now they have also blocked a vote which would allow the US to use Hungarian roads, railways and airspace for transporting military equipment towards the Middle East. Fidesz has said it first wants to know whether any shipments to Turkey are linked to the impending attack on Iraq, which is opposed by more than 80% of the Hungarian population. Since four-fifths of deputies must approve the necessary waiver, the vote failed to go through.

EU and UN radicalise Cyprus

The European Union and the United Nations have presented Cyprus with two ultimatums, demanding that the Greek South and the Turkish North sign a plan drawn up by Kofi Annan. The EU has said that this is the condition for the whole island to enter the European Union; otherwise, only the Greek South will join. Although this has generated a flurry of activity among the pro-EU camp – led, in the North, by the Chamber of Commerce and by the fugitive business tycoon, Asil Nadir – it has also destabilised the politics of the South and the economy of the North. In the North, banks have started to call in their mortgages on houses in the territory which the plan demands that the Turks return to the Greeks. In the South, however, the plan has backfired even more spectacularly, and has probably retarded any solution rather than hastened it. The veteran president of the Greek South, Glafkos Clerides, lost last Sunday’s presidential election to Tassos Papadopoulos. The hard-line Papadopoulos beat his rival by accusing him of being too emollient on the issue of property restitution; it is true, indeed, that Clerides had a good working relationship with the president of the North, Rauf Denktash. Papadopoulos, by contrast, used to be a paramilitary in the IRA-style EOKA (National Organisation of Cypriot Fighters) which committed numerous terrorist acts against British colonial rule in the 1950s and which then went on to attempt to ethnically cleanse the island of its Turks. In 1966, when Denktash was arrested by the Greek Cypriots, Papadopoulos, by then a minister, ordered him to be shot. It was only because Archbishop Makarios, the president of Cyprus, countermanded this order that Denktash survived. Now the two old enemies face each other across the green line – as clear an illustration as might be wished for of how international interference usually makes things worse, not better.