European Foundation Intelligence Digest, 18th

Turkey is the pivot

As the British Defence Minister, “Buff” Hoon, visits Turkey to persuade that country to participate in an American attack on Iraq, the head of the governing Justice and Development party in Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has opened the way to becoming the country’s prime minister. In a wonderful illustration of the withering away of the state in the new world order, Mr. Erdogan has been received all over the world as if he were already the head of his country’s government; in fact, that post is in the hands of one of his subordinates within the party he leads, since he himself was barred from standing for election for having recited a poem deemed inflammatory. That ban has now been removed and the way is open for him to get himself elected to parliament and then to the office of prime minister. This follows a second parliamentary vote on the constitutional change required, after the president initially refused to heed the result of the first vote. The constitutional change will allow Mr. Erdogan to be granted an amnesty.

Given that Mr. Erdogan heads what is supposed to be a popular Islamist party, his own popularity in the chancelleries of the West is most arresting. He attended the EU summit in Copenhagen and has visited the White House and the Kremlin, just as if he were already in office. [Die Welt, 1^st January 2003]

No doubt the principal reason for Mr. Erdogan’s acceptability is his evident desire to do what the West wants. Turkey’s role in Iraq is obviously the main consideration, especially from the point of view of the Americans. The most striking example of co-operation over Iraq came on Christmas Day when the leaders of the two factions in Iraqi Kurdistan visited Mr. Erdogan in Ankara, together with the Turkish prime minister and the head of the Turkish armed forces. Masoud al-Barazani and Jalal al-Talibani met the Turks just days after the American ambassador delivered a note to the Turkish government asking for a prompt reply to US demands “because time is running out”: the demands concern Turkey’s participation in an attack on Iraq, which would also concern the Kurds in Northern Iraq because their territory lies between Turkey and the rest of Iraq. The leading figure in the Iraqi National Congress, Ahmed Al-Jalabi, also met Kurdish officials in Ankara: Turkey’s role is clearly pivotal. Jalabi has said at the Congress that a post-Saddam Iraq will pump 6 million barrels of crude per day. This is twice the current level of production. [ArabicNews.com, 24^th December 2002] Turkey has demanded that it wants 10% of Iraq’s oil in return for its co-operation in the attack. This would give Ankara $ 5.5 billion a year in oil revenues. [Sabah, Turkish daily, 28^th December 2002] The paper quoted Murad Murjan, the deputy chairman of the Justice and Development Party, saying that this request had been officially submitted to American officials. Murjan based Turkey’s claim on the 1923 Lausanne Treaty which offers Turkey 10% of Iraq’s oil. An agreement reached in 1926, subsequent to the signature of Lausanne, gave Mosul to British Iraq in return for a share of that city’s oil revenues for 25 years. The Turks subsequently sold this right for £500,000.

Turkey is, of course, in the running to become a member of the EU. Its collaboration over the Cyprus question is also pivotal for the EU to be able to admit the island as a member. Prior to the Copenhagen summit, Turkey had threatened to annex Northern Cyprus and to rescind the free trade agreement it has with the EU if it did not get a firm date for beginning accession negotiations. It had to settle for less than this – a report is to be prepared on its “human rights record” – but far from fulfilling its threat over Cyprus, it is bending over backwards to cooperate with the EU on the matter. Indeed, Mr. Erdogan has lashed out at the Northern Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktash, saying that Ankara did not intend to continue with the policies of the last 30-40 years. It looks very much like Turkey will now try to get rid of Denktash in order to push through unification of Cyprus and thus to secure the island’s admission to Europe. The EU and the UN have given Cyprus a deadline of 28^th February to sort things out, and Mr. Erdogan has now threatened to make things “much more difficult” for Denktash if no agreement is forthcoming with the Greek Cypriots. The EU has said it will admit only the Greek half of the island if there is no agreement with the North. The Greek Cypriots have certainly interpreted Erdogan’s words as “the beginning of the post-Denktash era”. [Katja Ridderbusch, Die Welt, 4^th January 2003]

Three out of four French people against war

An opinion poll published in Le Figaro shows 77% of French people opposed to an attack on Iraq. Another poll has shown 66% opposed to an American attack designed to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s regime. The figures break down as follows: 84% of left-wing voters are against the war, 78% of right-wing ones are against it. These figures have not changed since before the new UN resolution on Iraq, UNSCR 1441. In 1991, moreover, opposition to the Gulf War stood at 67%. Oddly enough, 27% of National Front voters are in favour of war, even though Jean-Marie Le Pen is against it. [Le Figaro, 9^th January 2003]

Germany might vote for war

The German Chancellor has refused to say which way his country will vote in the UN Security Council if a motion is submitted for attacking Iraq. Although he repeated his statement that Germany herself would not participate in any attack (a statement which is wearing increasingly thin as Germany will undoubtedly offer logistical help to troops in Kuwait) he has not ruled out Germany voting with the Americans in the UN. Schröder is keen that Germany and France vote the same way; he has spoken with Jacques Chirac about “close co-ordination” between Paris and Berlin in the Security Council. The leader of the opposition, Edmund Stoiber, has said that if Germany does not vote against war, “then the government will have deceived voters in the worst possible way”. [Die Welt, 6^th January 2003]

“Rise” in euro could hurt “growth”

The dollar having fallen recently on foreign exchanges as traders become nervous in view of the impending attack on Iraq, the euro has risen. This has caused many British pro-Europeans to crow with delight. Continental industrialists, however, are less pleased: their exports are threatened by a strong euro, and exports are one of the main pillars of economic activity in the euro zone. Economists at Crédit Agricole have warned that, “In these times of weak economic activity, the appreciation of the euro could be a handicap for European growth, especially in Germany.” A disappointing 2002 is therefore giving way to an even gloomier 2003: the European Commission says that growth will be 1.8% in the euro zone, while the IMF predicts 2.3%. The ECB has revised its predictions downwards, saying that the 12 euro zone countries will grow between 1.1% and 2.1% this year, as against their June 2002 prediction of between 2.1% and 3.1%. The Federation of German Mechanical Builders has said that European exports cease to be competitive when the euro is above $1.10, but some industries, notably the automobile sector, are already suffering from Japanese competition since the yen has fallen against the euro. [Philippe Ricard, Le Monde, 7^th January 2003]

Unemployment continues to rise in euro zone

The euro, they tell us, is good for jobs: 4.2 million jobless Germans might think otherwise. The German unemployment rate has risen by 6.6% since the same time last year, the sharpest rise for five years. The picture is just as bleak in the rest of the euro zone, which has had the single currency for four years now. Unemployment is systemically higher in the euro zone than outside it: the seasonally-adjusted figure for the 15 EU states is 7.7% (as it was last month), but the figure for the euro zone countries is 8.4% (also unchanged from October). Compared to the same time last year, euro unemployment has actually risen: in November 2001, it was at 7.4% for the EU 15, 8.0% for the euro zone 12. Youth unemployment is 15.1% in the EU, 16.2% in the euro zone. These figures all come from Eurostat, the Commission’s statistical office, which is paid to produce figures that put a positive gloss on European policies. But their figures underestimate the true rate of joblessness. For instance, Eurostat puts German unemployment at 8.4%, while the German government itself says its rate is 10.1%. So you can round up Eurostat’s other figures for the euro zone accordingly. [Handelslblatt, 7^th January 2003; Die Welt, 9^th January 2003]

German institute revises predictions downwards

How many times has the Digest published items with this headline? The report published on Tuesday by the German Institute for Economics puts its estimate for growth in Germany in 2003 at 0.6% instead of 0.9% and says that growth in 2004 will be 1% at the very most. The institute called on the European Central Bank to cut rates in order to prevent deflation in Germany, but it also criticised the tax policies of the governing red-green coalition. The Institute also expects unemployment to rise to 4.2 million on average this year. The DIW also says that the German budget deficit will be below the Maastricht level, at 2.7% this year and 1.6% in 2004. [Handelsblatt, 7^th January 2003]

Commission attacks budgets in France, Germany

The European Commission has attacked the budgetary policies of France as “inadequate” and said that Germany needs to undertake “urgent reforms”. It says that there is no economic recovery in sight and that the euro zone is in danger. Germany’s deficit overshot the 3% barrier in 2002, and that country is now the object of the excess deficit procedure. France, which could fall into the same category in 2003, is to receive a preventive warning. The Germans have put up taxes to cut the deficit, but France has said that it will not follow suit. The French prime minister has said that German tax hikes might hurt the whole of European growth. The Commission has been very specific in its instructions to the two countries, underlining how much the euro affects national independence: it has told France that it must reform its pensions and health system because “full reforms have been delayed over recent years”, and it has told Germany that it needs “urgent reforms to raise the very small potential for growth”. These reforms, says the Commission, must be undertaken in labour law and in the country’s social security system. The Commission has also told Germany to de-regulate its economy. [Arnaud Leparmentier & Virginie Malingre, Le Monde, 6^th January 2003]

Prodi admits price rises

In an interview with four European newspapers, Romano Prodi has admitted that the introduction of the euro was accompanied by significant price rises. Although he starts off the interview by saying that the euro has been an unqualified success, he adds, “Difficulties exist and the price rises were certainly real.” He claims that the overall rise was modest and that in some sectors prices actually fell “because of competitivity and greater transparency in prices”. But he admits that the price rise in “services, such as cafés, restaurants, insurance, local businesses” were “very large”. He claims that these rises cannot be blamed on the introduction of the euro but on “a lack of control by governments”. But his admission that there were these rises flies in the face of the repeated statements by statisticians (paid for either by the European Commission or the European Central Bank) that there has been no inflation.

Big bash for 40^th birthday of Elysée Treaty

“Monstrous” is how one leading German commentator describes the festivities planned in Paris for the 40^th anniversary of the Elysée Treaty signed in 1963 by Konrad Adenauer and Charles de Gaulle. The current French president and German Chancellor have announced their plan to devote considerable effort to celebrating the anniversary of the treaty which sealed the Franco-German co-operation which so influenced the development of the EU: the night of 22^nd-23^rd January has been proclaimed “a Franco-German night” and the whole population of both countries is supposed to take part. The fun starts in the morning of 22^nd January with a solemn declaration by both leaders; it will be followed by a joint meeting of the French National Assembly and the German Bundestag in the palace of Versailles – the place where the German Empire was proclaimed in 1871, and where the disastrous Paris peace conference was held in 1919. But it is not clear why such celebrations are being held on the 40^th, rather than the 50^th anniversary: as one politician has said, “Why don’t they wait for 10 years?” [Jochen Hehn, Die Welt, 3^rd January 2003]

Dehaene confirms Convention’s plans

The former Belgian prime minister, Jean-Luc Dehaene, Vice-President of the European Convention, has confirmed that the purpose of his committee is “to draw up a constitutional treaty which will fuse together, and then abolish, the existing treaties; to give the Union a single juridical personality by ending the system of “pillars”, and integrating the Charter of fundamental rights.” [Jean-Pierre Stroobants, Le Monde, 3^rd January 2003]

French letters

Now is the time for New Year’s Resolutions, and what better resolution than to brush up your French – especially when there are so many good French Eurosceptic newsletters and magazines to which you can subscribe. Two of France’s leading souverainiste MEPs, Paul-Marie Coûteaux and William Abitbol, each have their own newsletters. Coûteaux’s monthly is called L’independence (write to EDD, 288, bd Saint-Germain, 75341 Paris Cedex 07) while Abitbol, who sits on the European Convention, has a newsletter simply called Convention-France (obtainable from the same address or by e-mail from wabitbol@europarl.eu.int). Then there is La Lettre de l’Idée française published by the Deputy-Mayor of Versailles, the former MEP, Stéphane Buffetaut, (address: R.P.F., 33 ter, avenue Edoaurd Vaillant, 92100 Boulogne-Villancourt). Last but not least there is the uncompromisingly titled Bastille-République-Nation, whose subtitle is the refreshingly direct “Mensuel progressiste radicalement eurocritique”. As that subtitle suggests, the newspaper is mainly left-wing but its editor, Pierre Lévy, is politically ecumenical and has many conservative sovereignists among his authors. Subscriptions can be obtained from 8, rue du faubourg Poissonière, 75010 Paris or afbrn2000@yahoo.fr.) Keen Internet surfers can visit http://www.souverainete-france.org/ and look at the links.)

Croatia to apply to join EU

Zagreb has announced that Croatia will apply for EU membership between 15^th and 17^th February. The Croatian prime minister, the Communist Ivica Račan, is to visit European capitals in January, including London, Berlin, Madrid, Athens and Rome. The Communist president, Stijepan Mesić, is to visit Paris. The Croatian parliament debated EU accession on 18^th December and encouraged the government to press ahead with the application. [Foreign Press Bureau, Zagreb, 31^st December 2002] Croatia also hopes to join Nato, although fewer than half of the population supports this move. According to an opinion poll published in Croatia, only 43% support joining Nato while 20% said it was undesirable. 22% said they did not care and 15% gave no answer. 57% of those asked said they supported joining the EU, while 16% said they were against it. [Jutarnji list, 29^th December 2002]

EU polices Bosnia & Herzegovina

The European Union has taken over from the United Nations the running of the International Police Task Force in Bosnia-Herzegovina. This is the first time that an operation has been carried out under the terms of the Common European Security and Foreign Policy. The European Union Police Mission, complete with EU flag, took over on 1^st January. Troops and police will now wear the EU flag on their armbands. Javier Solana said this was “a symbol of the common will of the Europeans to create security and stability on our continent.” The police force, headed by a Dane, has a budget of €38 million a year. The EU policemen are unarmed, so they have to be protected by Nato troops. The EU mission replaces the UN mission which has been in Bosnia since 1992, and which assisted in the storming of Srebrenica in July 1995, when Dutch blue helmets allowed the Serbs to take over the city. [Katja Ridderbusch, Die Welt, 4^th January 2003] The outgoing head of the UN mission, the American Jacques Klein, slammed Nato for failing to capture either Radovan Karadžić or Ratko Mladić, and said that he was ashamed of the international community for this failure. He said that there was no reason why the most powerful military alliance in history could not arrest the most wanted war criminals. [Foreign Press Bureau, Zagreb, 31^st December 2002]

All quiet in Kosovo?

Life goes on as normal in Kosovo. Three Albanian men were shot dead on 4^th January in the latest round of feud killings between rival wings of the KLA, which Nato supported in its attacks on Yugoslavia in 1999. The killings occurred in the centre of the South-Western town of Peć. One of the three men killed was Tahir Zemaj, a guerrilla leader who fought the Serbs in 1998-1999 but who was close to the “pacifist” Kosovo Albanian president, Ibrahim Rugova, two of whose principal aides have also been assassinated. Zemaj had been the chief prosecution witness in the trial of five KLA members who were convicted of murdering four members of his gang. The other two victims were Zemaj’s son and nephew. [Reuters, 4^th January 2003]

Polish church wants EU provision on abortion

The Catholic Church in Poland has said that the country should obtain a specific mention in the EU treaties that it has the right to set its own laws on abortion when it joins the EU, as Malta has done. Polish abortions have fallen from 105,000 in 1988 to 138 in 2000 following the restrictive law introduced in 1993. [BBC News, 2^nd January 2003]

Those new member states in full

Lithuania is one of the states which have been recently invited to join both the European Union and Nato: people often quote this as proof that its economy is booming. But according to the Statistics Department of the Lithuanian government, average per capita income was 432.1 litas (= €125.20 = £81.25) per month. But 756 litas a month are needed to maintain a comfortable standard of living. [Lithuanian Weekly, 13^th December 2002] Perhaps this is why the same newspaper reports that the Lithuanian police are to acquire a device which administers electric shocks by remote control. Manufactured by a US company, “the high-voltage law enforcement tool makes a person fall on the ground shouting loudly.” In another development, it is reported that 50,000 people were expected to greet George Bush in central Vilnius when he visited the country for an hour or so after the Prague summit. Only 5,000 did so. Bush was welcomed to Vilnius by the then president, Valdas Adamkus, who lost the presidential election on 5^th January. Adamkus fought with the Nazis in 1944 and then emigrated to the US, where he became an American citizen. During the presidential visit, Colin Powell also met the head of the Lithuanian armed forces, Jonas Kronkaitis, who was himself trained in the US army and had been in the same class as Powell decades previously. [Baltische Rundschau, December 2002 – January 2003]